Research questions
In general, a research question’s nature depends on the goal and type of the pursued analysis (See fig 3.9 in Francom 2024):
| Type | Aims | Approach | Methods | Evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploratory | Explore: gain insight | Inductive, data-driven, and iterative | Descriptive, pattern detection with machine learning (unsupervised) | Associative |
| Predictive | Predict: validate associations | Semi-deductive, data-/ theory-driven, and iterative | Predictive modeling with machine learning (supervised) | Model performance, feature importance, and associative |
| Inferential | Explain: test hypotheses | Deductive, theory-driven, and non-iterative | Hypothesis testing with statistical tests | Causal |
Research questions within # 1 “EXPLORATION”
Question 1.1
Is there a pattern in the WBG project document corpus1 that shows non random variation in the incidence of certain policy concepts2 over time?
Question 1.2
Since the WBG project document corpus data are very incomplete when it comes to sector and theme tagging: is it possible to overcome the insufficient data completion using TOPIC MODELING?
Question 1.3
Could the WDR 3 “explain” or at least have a correlation to the appearance-prevalence of said concepts?
For the moment, the present study’s research aim (See Table 1) is mainly TO EXPLORE (trends over time in concepts use), and possibly to PREDICT (conjecture about WRD traction effect).
Hypotheses
Hyps 1.1
The hypothesis being tested here (Section 1.1) is that the WBG project document corpus shows a non-random variation in the incidence of certain policy concepts over time.
The launch of a “policy slogan” carries intrinsic motivations to shift the PDO in a certain direction.
- This question will be handled in a data-driven way, i.e. starting from the data and not from preconceived ideas…
- (i.e. I see that after 2020, the word “pandemic” and “vaccine” peaks within PDOs’ texts, so I will look for a correlation with the COVID-19 pandemic shock, instead of the other way around).
Hyps 1.2
The hypothesis being tested here (Section 1.2) is that some ML techniques can help improving the quality of the “document data collection”, e.g. the poor and incomplete sector/theme tagging of the WBG project documents.
- Note that for this purpose the available dataset (~ 20 FYs worth of project PDOs descriptions) has been splitted into a training + validation + test sets.
Hyps 1.3
The “alternative” hypothesis being tested here (Section 1.3) is that the WDR has a “traction effect” on the PDO of the following FYs.
Possible (interesting) follow-up
Research questions within # 2 “EXPLANATION of "why"”
The important question is “WHY” does such a deviation from the original meaning of a word/sentence occur?. Granted, languages evolve on their own, but it can also be subject to manipulation, as George Orwell’s “1984” so powerfully depicted illustrating the rules and purpose of fictional Oceania nation’s newspeak. The risks connected to this potential abuse of language are clearly laid out by Riccardo Garbini in his “Lessico - Uscire da Babele” (Garbini 2003, 4) 4
In some cases the deviation of the meaning is evidenced by the pure and simple suppression of the term (1984): in such cases, therefore, the analysis does not insist on the reductionist aspect. The deviations, where present, are dictated above all by ideological intentions, that is, by the superimposition of an interpretative grid with rather rigid meshes on the objective data of reality. The effect of the superimposition of this interpretative grid called ideology thus results in a reduction of the perceptive and interpretative field of reality. For this reason semantic deviations have been called ‘reductionisms’.
Research questions within # 3 “EXPLANATION of "how"”
Assuming that we may, at least, form hypotheses on why this “reduction” occurs, “HOW does the the deviation from reality (in the language common use) sparkle and then spread?” Can we detect the mechanisms?
Research question’s area # 4 “WHAT CONSEQUENCES”
Besides investigating the origin, it would be equally important to understand the consequences of a lamented lessical approximation or reduction.
References
Footnotes
WBG project document observed in this case are Project Development Objectives (PDO) descriptive short texts.↩︎
concepts encompasses “policy focus”, “sector”, “strategy” or “emerging priority” in the arena of funding for development ….↩︎
WDRs are the flagship reports of the World Bank group…↩︎
Annex to the Giuseppe Fioravanti’s book (Fioravanti 2006)↩︎